Angel92: Lance Lynn’s historically lucky 2017

Lance Lynn’s historically lucky 2017

Sep 8 2017 at 05:03

In the early years of Lance Lynn’s career [][/url] with the St. Louis Cardinals, he struck out plenty of batters, walked an acceptable numbers of batters, and did so while clearing over 175 innings pitched per season. But his earned-run average was noticeably higher than one might expect based on his peripheral statistics. Whether this was due to bad luck or some other factor, Lynn’s results simply did not match what appeared to be strong performances.

And then, starting in 2014, things turned around, and the pitcher with formerly underwhelming results suddenly began to post earned run averages which were superior to his fielding-independent pitching and other similar peripheral statistics.

But in 2017, Lance Lynn has taken the concept of a FIP-beater, a pitcher whose ERA is superior to what his strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed suggest it should be, to extreme levels which most baseball fans have never seen.

In his start last Saturday against the San Francisco Giants, Lance Lynn threw eight shutout innings in which he allowed just one hit. Conventional wisdom suggests that Lynn had been absolutely dominant, but at one point, Lynn had walked four batters while striking out zero. At that point, Lance Lynn’s FIP on the day stood at 5.02, implying a mediocre-to-bad start rather than one in which he had not allowed a run. While Lynn did rehabilitate his FIP a bit with four strikeouts in his final five batters faced, his decent 3.63 FIP was no [][/url] match for his dominant 0.00 ERA.

This has been the tale of Lance Lynn’s 2017—following what was his 28th start of the season, Lynn’s ERA fell below three, standing at 2.99 on the season, while his FIP is now a much more mediocre 4.71. And while Gio Gonzalez, a Cy Young candidate for the Washington Nationals, and Ervin Santana, a surprising comeback story for the Minnesota Twins, have arguably been bigger national stories for exceeding expectations not only generated by lesser FIPs but also by lesser expectations at this point in their careers, it is Lynn whose -1.73 ERA-FIP differential is the strongest negative differential in baseball among qualified pitchers.




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